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Research Summary of “Double Trouble for Native Species Under Climate Change: Habitat Loss and Increased Environmental Overlap With Non‐Native Species”
Summary:
When native and non-native species overlap in the environmental and geographical spaces that they occupy, there is potential for ecological interactions. This study tests how climate change might impact the overlap in the environmental conditions and suitable geographic ranges within which two native and two non-native fish species in Western North America can occur. Specifically, the authors modelled the current and future environmental niches (defined as the range of variables that shape where a species can occur, including elevation, slope, flow velocity, and temperature) and geographical distributions of non-native northern pike (Esox lucius) and smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), as well as native redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). Using current species distributions and climate projections for 2070, the authors evaluated the extent of environmental niche overlap between native and non-native fish species under current conditions and future climate change scenarios. They found that in a future climate, the overlap in environmental niches is predicted to increase between native and non-native species, except between smallmouth bass and bull trout (for which niche overlap is projected to decrease). Under a future climate scenario, the geographic distributions of all the studied species except smallmouth bass are projected to shrink, and will shift toward higher elevations and colder stream temperatures for northern pike and smallmouth bass.
Keywords:
Riparian, Aquatic, Native community resilience, Range shifts & invasion hotspots, Tools & resources, Ecological niches, trout
Take Home Points:
Future climate conditions are projected to decrease the amount of suitable habitat for native bull trout and redband trout, with bull trout’s range likely to be restricted to higher elevations.
The range of smallmouth bass in Western North America is projected to increase and spread into higher-elevation areas with climate change, including expansion into the upper Columbia, Puget Sound, Southern Oregon coast, Upper Snake, and Pend Oreille basins.
Although climate change is predicted to decrease the geographic overlap between native bull trout and redband trout with non-native northern pike and smallmouth bass, the amount of environmental niche overlap between both native species and non-native species is expected to increase, with the potential to increase predation from the non-native species when they co-occur with the native species.
Management Implications:
Climate change is predicted to threaten bull trout and redband trout through declining habitat suitability and potential predation pressure from non-native species.
The joint consideration of how climate change will impact native and non-native species ranges can help inform management.
Want more? Check out these relevant summaries:
NW RISCC Research Summary of Bell et al., 2021: “Climate change and expanding invasive species drive widespread declines of native trout in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA”
NW RISCC Webinar: “Threats to the Conservation of Native Fish in the NW United States: RADical Approaches to the Intersection of Climate Change & Aquatic Invasive Species”
This research summary was written by Eva Colberg and edited by Arif Jan.
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