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Near Real-Time Forecasts Predict When and Where to Expect the Invasive Spotted Lanternfly
Summary:
Barker et al. (2025) developed a model that integrates the mapping of the seasonal development (phenology) and climatic suitability for the spotted lanternfly (SLF), Lycorma delicatula, to provide insight into when to expect important life cycle events in areas where this pest is at risk of establishment. The model was evaluated using presence records and phenological observations derived from monitoring studies and the iNaturalist database. The model performed well, with more than >99.9% of the presence records included in the potential distribution for North America, a large proportion of the iNaturalist observations correctly predicted, and a low error rate for dates of the first appearance of adults. Cold and heat stresses may be insufficient to prevent the long-term establishment of the SLF in the Northwest and most other parts of the conterminous U.S. However, the pest may be unable to complete its life cycle in colder areas, such as mountainous (e.g., the Cascades) and higher latitude regions (see Fig. 7). Near-real-time forecasts produced by the model are available at two websites (USA National Phenology Network and USPest.org) to support decision making. Additional monitoring data collected from across the SLF’s range are needed to further evaluate and potentially improve upon the model.
Take Home Points:
Incorporating model forecasts into monitoring activities may increase the likelihood of SLF detection and improve the timing of control measures against susceptible life stages.
Near-real-time forecasts of when spotted lanternfly eggs will hatch and when adults will appear are available at the USA National Phenology Network and USPest.org for the conterminous U.S.
Geographic variation in the dates when adults appear will likely translate into geographic differences in host-plant pressure.
Management Implications:
Forecasts of egg hatch provide insight into when nymphs will appear, which may help to detect the SLF before it can spread to additional locations.
Phenological forecasts may help with the timing of insecticide and entomopathogen treatments, some of which are more effective when applied at a particular point in the pest’s life cycle.
The model could have applications for SLF management using biological control agents, which are currently under investigation and not yet available for widespread release.
Want more? Check out these relevant resources:
NW RISCC Research Summary: Barker et al. 2023. “An integrative phenology and climatic suitability model for emerald ash borer. Frontiers in Insect Science, 3, 1239173.”
NE RISCC Tool Summaries: “OIPMC Degree-day Calculator.”
Digger Magazine Growing Knowledge Article: Posthumus et al. 2025. “New tool helps nursery growers fight pests. Digger, June 2025, pp. 41-44.
Description of modeling platform: Barker et al. 2020. “DDRP: real-time phenology and climatic suitability modeling of invasive insects. PLoS ONE, 15, e0244005.”
Keywords:
Tools and Practice, Phenology, Establishment Risk, Forecast, Invertebrates, Lycorma delicatula
Summary Author: Brittany Barker
Summary Editor: Eva Colberg
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